Stacking ’em Volume 29 (December 2022)

Last post of the year, last stacking of the year, lowest price for stacking this year! As per usual, I ‘squandered’ 500€ from my monthly budget (paycheck) and market bought Bitcoin with it. The price this time was around 16560 € / BTC which translates into ~0.03 BTC added to the stack that stands at approximately 4.22 BTC today.

What a year it has been! Thought I’d seen it all having lived through the 2018 – 2019 bear market. Tbh, pricewise it has been feeling a lot like it, but back then there was none of this big companies scamming & going under. Also, the geopolitical environment has been more or less stable during Bitcoin’s first 10 year. Now we have all the storms going on simultaneously (paper bitcoin, war, inflation, recession), giving Bitcoin a real test for the first time, a rite of passage. Some might say the ‘cycles’ are broken and I kinda agree but also the cycles might not have been broken if everything else in the world would have been the same as before. In a way, ‘the cycles’ might have contributed to Bitcoin holding on relatively well in this turmoil of an environment and it could have been much worse if we didn’t have the cycle enforcing bitcoin scarcity / adoption equation.

The near future is as uncertain as it ever could be, but in the long term the war will end, the recession will come and go, the halvings will happen on schedule & bitcoin adoption will increase. There simply is no potential future in my mind where bitcoin doesn’t succeed, and no potential future where you wouldn’t feel sorry for not stacking more while you could. So that’s what I will be focusing on during the next year and the year after that.

Stacking sats as much as possible!

The orange line is my ever growing bitcoin stack, starting from zero pre October 2017 and increasing every month ever since. The green line is the corresponding eurozone fiat value, my net worth so to say. The dashed black line is the total amount of fiat spent, currently ~34000 €. The average price for bitcoin during my 5 year stacking period has been ~8000€ / BTC and I’m up slightly more than 100% for the money put in. Not bad, considering we are in the depths of one of the worst bear markets in Bitcoin’s history. After this has been suffered through (stacked through) the rise will be glorious.

The bars represent every bitcoin purchase I’ve ever made, starting from October 2017, 63 in total. It paints a gloomy story of my stacking during the last 24 months. All of them are basically at a loss, meaning it would have been ‘better’ to stack them euros on my bank account instead. But, as we know, you cannot time the bitcoin market so if you’d try to be clever like that you would only miss the best opportunities and end up buying at 50k (for example) instead of the current below 20k prices. So, I’ll happily take this 24+ month stacking season and be down for a while in order to be up greatly eventually. On my best buy, I’m up 460% and on the worst, down -70%.

The orange line is the performance of my bitcoin savings strategy. The blue line is the ‘reference strategy’ of putting similar amounts on similar times into S&P500 instead. Obviously, we get more volatility in the bitcoin savings strategy but whereas the performance curve (orange line) went below S&P strategy during the previous bear market (2018-2019) the bitcoin strategy is miles ahead (107% vs. 26%) during the current bitcoin bear market. My conclusion is that the upward volatility greatly ‘surpasses’ the downward volatility and there really is no rational excuse to not use bitcoin as your savings vehicle. The only valid reason would be you are not handling the bitcoin swings mentally. This actually is true for many people but this is also why you shouldn’t sit in front of the trading screen and wait for quick riches. Instead, you make a multiyear stacking plan and brainlessly buy every month, regardless of the price.

Thanks for reading! 2022 out! I hope you have more bitcoin now than you did in 2021. Let’s keep on going and stack another year!

@BRetirementPlan

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