A new month, a new salary, a new fresh pack of sats stacked. This months purchase came at a price of ~8300€/BTC which means I got ~0.06 BTC for 500€ and my total stack grew to 3.57 BTC. With a price of ~8300€/BTC of it means the progress bar is currently at ~3%. Since I’ve been stacking for almost three years now, the stats might suggest I need another 97 years to meet my target. Which is of course NOT the case! My current guess is I need 5 more years. This would consist of another bull market to a new price level (currently we have the ~10k level), another bear market to test the fundamentals (people holding BTC), and another bull market to even higher level where my stack will be victorious. 5 more years of dedication through the joys and tears of price discovery. This time I anticipate it will be harder during the ups (than downs) when I reach say a few hundred grand net worth. Should I sell? It’s a shitload of money. At least to someone who grew up in a poor family, has an average paying job and who not so long ago had a negative net worth (student loan).
I assume it will be very hard to not sell and very painful to watch some of that fiat net worth melt away in the following bear market. I will probably kick myself for not selling at the top (like anyone could time the top anyway, lol). But that’s how human psyche works, and it helps to assume/predict all this behaviour beforehand. I’m prepared. Hodling is not supposed to be easy. I don’t even want it to be easy. After I claim my victory (figuratively speaking), people are gonna call me a lucky bugger. But I know it was hard work and dedication. I know the friends who call me lucky, couldn’t have done it themselves. I’ve already talked with several of these people.
They are hopeless.
They are my friends and they will stay my friends (hopefully). But they don’t dare buy Bitcoin (because they’re scared of losing their money, even a little bit) and they don’t wanna dedicate time for understanding Bitcoin because they read the newspaper and you know what the newspaper says about Bitcoin. They know all about it, and they are not interested.
They are gonna call me lucky. But I know it was hard work. Easy money does not give you satisfaction (I guess) but I’m gonna be so fucking proud of my hodling skills and what I’ve achieved. It’s gonna feel damn good.
Of course I’m not gonna brag and they will never know how much exactly I got (because unlike here, in person I never tell how much I have) but they can do 1+1 and make a ballpark guess.
Got on the side roads there. Back to the not selling part. What am I gonna do with a few hundred grand? Buy a house? Then what? Back to work and continue living as a slave to the bankers, slave to the state? I’m not here to get physical stuff. I don’t want a house. I can stay on rent for the rest of my life. I don’t need a fancy car. I don’t need to show off and nothing physical can give me fulfilment. No. I’m here for financial freedom. What does that mean? It means I have all of my waking time to work on projects that don’t give me immediate returns. It means I don’t have a debt and monthly payments that I need to worry about. It means I will have a clear mind and all the time in the world.
The funny thing about it is: most likely I’m gonna end up starting a business of my own that eventually will be more successful than my current midpaying job. So, it will feel like I didn’t actually need the money to do it. I could have just quit and start the business already. But in reality, I needed the freedom to get the ideas, I needed the time to make the products.
Having the freedom to fail is a recipe for success.
Remember to cut costs and stack sats.
-Bitster Money Mustache
BMM: I like your commitment to blogging about this in a rational, non moonboy way, and you seem to have a good mindset about weathering the ups and downs in the crypto market. But I just want to hear your calculation about the 5 years to 1 million euros comment. My calculation is below.
It’s in your interest for BTC to remain low during the accumulation phase so you can stack more and enjoy a big bullrun, right? Even still, I think you’ll need to see BTC way north of 100k in 2025 to get there.
Now let’s look at a moderately rising market. If the average BTC price over the next 5 years is €9,000 for the rest of 2020, €10,000 in 2021, €12,000 in 2022, €15,000 in 2023, and €18,000 in 2024, then at €500 per month you will have accumulated a little over 2 BTC, for a total portfolio of ~5.5 BTC at the beginning of 2025. If BTC pops to €100k in 2025, you have €576-580k. Awesome stack but not a million. So you would need BTC to go to about €170-175k in 2025 to get there given all the other assumptions I’ve listed.
Now assuming there is a 2 year bear market coming up of €5000 per BTC in 2021 and 2022, then it goes back to my numbers above: €15,000 in 2023, and €18,000 in 2024. That means you pick up 3.4 BTC for a total of 7 BTC by the time 2025 rolls around. If BTC pops to €100,000 in 2025, then you have €709k – 720k BTC. To get to a million you would need BTC to go to €140k.
In a rising market (say €25k BTC next year and that keeps rising), your €500 per month is going to do less and less, so you would only accumulate .2 to .3 BTC per year.
So I think either you would need a sustained bear market – say 3 years below €5000 – or to have extra funds set aside for buying the dips (say 3,000-5,000 extra euros per year and timed very well) to get to 1 million, but that would still require BTC to approach €100k. Even increasing your monthly buys to 700 euros per month I wouldn’t think would get you there without bitcoin over €100k.
Maybe I’m as skeptical about 100-150k BTC than others, but my 2 sats are that you have a good mindset and will probably get to use your stack on a significant downpayment for a very nice home, but that you won’t get to 1M. Love to hear your thoughts.
Thanks for your comment John! Long story short, I actually believe 1 Bitcoin will be worth 1 million € in the not too distant future (within 10 years). Therefore, for me it’s only a matter of time. I still wanna stack as much as I can, and not only wait for the 1 million Bitcoin. And after all, I didn’t have anything before I started stacking (obviously) so of course I need to stack for some time at least, but I don’t wanna stop! even though as you mention, the higher the price gets – the less meaningful my monthly purchase will be.
I believe we will continue to experience market cycles of ~4 years (the halving cycle). So I’m expecting the price to tease the previous all time high of $20k (easier to speak in dollars since the twitter sphere saturates my mind with the dollar prices) within this year already or at the start of 2021. That will spur the actual bull market which will top somewhere north of $100k. Hell, I’m so bullish I have a part in my mind that tells me I’m gonna hit the 1 million net worth already in the next 1-2 years. But realistically (lol), I think the 2021 bull will not get me to 1 million €. I need to survive another bear market that will be tough to watch net worth wise (the biggest amount of money I have ever ‘lost’), but on the other hand that will be another chance to make more stacking.
Then, during the bull of 2025 (or so), I will blast through the 1 million net worth and 1 Bitcoin itself might tease the 1 million € or $ price. This is my thinking behind the roughly 5 years of stacking still.
You are a lot more careful in your predictions and this might sound totally crazy for you! =D And for sure, I suck at price predictions (historically) – one of the reasons I don’t trade. But the fact that I have the dedication and vision for Bitcoin means somebody else out there will have the same thoughts as well. And the fact Bitcoin works as intended means it’s only a matter of number of people to get it, and act accordingly. Let’s see how it pans out but believe me when I say I kinda feel like a millionaire already =D that’s how sure I am (maybe foolishly).
Cheers!
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