It’s been a while since updating the blog, life hitting hard on other areas being the reason, nevertheless the stacking never stops! Fiat mine keeps running, salary keeps hitting the bank account, sats keep getting stacked. The price for December was around 34800€ for me which means I got another ~.014 btc added to the stack that stands at roughly 4.45 btc at the moment.
A lot has happened since I last posted, bitcoin seems to be in an ‘up only’ mood. I remember writing about a similar phase in 2020 when bitcoin started to creep towards the previous all time highs (from 10k –> 20k) without any real downturns. That was half a year after spring 2020 halving so currently we are ~1 year early (compared to the previous cycle) approaching the previous ath. The cycle theory was already a bit disappointing (although timely correct) last time around, but now it seems we can throw away any predictions made with the previous cycles behaviour. Basically, Bitcoin is gonna keep doing the thing it always has been doing – the unpredictable. Let’s take a look at the charts:
The orange line (left axis) is my btc stack, always increasing, getting closer to the next milestone that is 4.5 btc. The green line (right axis) is the corresponding fiat worth, climbing up again after finding the bear market bottom below 100k, now above 150k and not too far from ath numbers. It has to be said that the actual performance has been more of a rollercoaster but this chart is made with the purchase dates, once per month data points, so you cannot see all the volatility. The black dashed line (right axis) is the total amount of money spent, ~40k at the moment, during 6 years with once per month purchases.
The bars represent every bitcoin purchase I’ve ever made, starting from October 2017, 75 in total. That’s 75 months religiously buying bitcoin, during the bulls, during the bears, not spending the money on something else, keeping the course, eyes on the price. It’s a hard work creating your bitcoin stack, no way around it. About the chart: the best buys from 2018-2019 give me gains of ~1000% while the worst buys form the previous bull cycle give a loss of -35% (the small blip down from 0-axis in late 2021). There’s your asymmetrical bet that bitcoin provides. And these -35% paper losses are the ones that the boomers are afraid of thus keeping away from bitcoin.
The orange line is the performance of the bitcoin savings strategy. The blue line is the performance of a standard (and poor) savings strategy of similar buys into S&P instead. The S&P strategy obviously has less volatility which is probably why it’s more popular among people with trouble holding their piss, but if you can stomach the volatility, there’s little reason why shouldn’t opt for the clearly superior savings strategy. The bitcoin strategy has given me a +290% profit for the money put in, while S&P strategy would have given a measly +38%, a near 10x difference and we are at the precipice of another bull market which will most likely stretch this difference to unimaginable levels.
That’s all for this month, and year! I hope you have seized the day with your stacking capabilities and I hope next year provides us some nice upticks for a while. The bear market has been long but we survived it and are ready for the bull and the struggles it provides us (it’s not easy in the bull market either). Have a nice Christmas and New Years, see you next year!
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