Stacking ’em Volume 26 (September 2022)

Another month goes by at the fiat mine, another salary hits the bank account, another set of sats added to the stack! As per usual I peel off 500€ of my monthly salary/budget and market buy bitcoin with it. Septembers effective price for me (fees taken into account) was ~ 20200 €/BTC which means I got another ~.024 BTC added to the stack that stands at roughly 4.15 BTC at the moment. Slowly but surely grinding towards the next point one. Four twenty, here I come.

Bear market barts all around. Bitcoin pumps, bitcoin dumps. It’s the ‘retail rekt cycle’ again (or still) – so many leveraged longs you just have to have a crash for hyperliquidations. But after the crash it’s a tempting opportunity to go leveraged long so it builds up again. And then crashes again. And then builds up again..

It will end when enough people have lost enough bitcoin so they won’t be willing to gamble on leverage again. They will then focus on holding what they have left, and stacking with income they have coming. Slowly but surely. Patience is key. Plus endurance.

An unforeseen energy crisis is upon us and the media has already blamed bitcoin for boiling the oceans and using all of the worlds energy by 2020. So far they have been kinda random news articles but it feels like the momentum will soon be for an organized effort. The media telling people to have cold showers in order to save energy, climate lunatics on media every day, Etheerium going full virtue signaling mode… – if there’s ever going to be an ‘attack’ against ‘bitcoins energy use’ its gonna happen now. But all its going to accomplish is sway a few fools away, delay the inevitable, lengthen our stacking season, build our stoic character, and in the end – make the eventual victory that much sweeter. So, sit on tight and enjoy the ride.

Let’s take a look at the charts:

Reaching a new ATH in sats, again (recurring monthly celebration)! The orange line taking a break from ‘flattening the curve’ phase. There’s always this silver lining in bitcoin crashes – accumulation velocity increases. If you are early in your stacking or only just thinking about starting to stack bitcoin – this is the time when future riches are made. Seize the day with these low prices and focus on mining that fiat for stacking. Keep at it, month after month. Nobody knows how long its gonna last. But when its over – you can be sure you’re feeling regrets for not doing more when you could have.

The bars represent every bitcoin purchase I’ve ever made, starting from October 2017, 60 in total. The best buys from 2018 – 2019 give me gains of +500 – 600% per purchase atm. I’m at a loss with nearly every purchase since 1.1.2021 meaning it would have been ‘better’ to stack them monthly 500€ on a bank account during the last 20 months. But this is nothing new, it’s always like this in bitcoin. You are not gonna get a linear growth line to your net worth. Bitcoin is going to test you, sooner or later. Everyone will be underwater at some point during their journey.

I have compared saving in bitcoin to going to the gym. You go to the gym to grow your muscles. At first, you are only spending time and getting pain, no noticeable growth. But you keep on going, and after some time you will see the results. Likewise in bitcoin – you start to stack sats regularly. Bitcoin will crash and on paper you are down -80%. But you keep on buying, month after month. After a while, bitcoin pumps and there is a noticeable growth in you net worth.

The orange line shows the performance of my bitcoin savings strategy over time. The blue line is the imaginary performance of someone who bought S&P instead of bitcoin with otherwise similar plan. I made this chart because I used to be very much into the early retirement (FIRE) stuff. These people are buying the S&P as much as they can, month after month, relying on the historical 7% annual increase to go on forever. They aim to grow their stack to a point where this 7% (or less) is enough for them to live comfortably. Learning about that and then getting into bitcoin, I thought like I found some cheat codes for growing a retirement stack. Surely bitcoin was gonna give me more than 7% annually for the foreseeable. And surely enough, my strategy has currently given me +160% for the money put in, whereas the S&P strategy would have given me a measly +24% atm. A huge difference even at the bottom of a bitcoin bear market. During the next bull market, the bitcoin strategy is going to slaughter the S&P strategy leaving Mr. Money Mustache in disbelief.

That’s all for now! Take care and keep on stacking. See ya next month!

@RetireEarlyBTC

Ps. If you’re gonna buy Bitcoin from somewhere avoid the shitcoin casinos and buy from a toxic maxi, for example Swan or Bull Bitcoin.

Stacking ’em Volume 25 (August 2022)

Another month goes by, another salary hits the bank account, another Bitcoin purchase added to the stack! As per usual, I market buy with 500€ taken from my freshly delivered fiat salary, the August price was ~22800€ / BTC which means I got around 0.022 BTC added to the stack that stands at ~4.12 BTC today. It has been a nice summer holiday season and tbh I haven’t been paying much attention to the BTC price nor the drama. So it might be my lack of coverage but it feels like there are no more new additions to the failure series of Luna, Celsius, 3 Arrows etc. A bottom might have formed in the fuck ups!

Gonna jump straight into a random thought I had the other day: Bitcoiners are people I like. They are people with good intentions, high morale, kind, helpful, patient, honest (in other words: ‘toxic maxis’). If I know someone to be a bitcoiner, I can say that I will probably like him / her as a person, as a friend. Kinda useful thing to know.

Is this gonna change post hyperbitcoinization?

Surely I can not like every single person on the planet (or can I)? So if/when everyone becomes a bitcoiner, the rule of thumb (bitcoiners are my people) goes away? Or maybe the exposure to bitcoin will change everyone a bit (has changed me for sure)? Is the useful heuristic going away or is the human species as a whole finding more common ground to build upon? Probably both.

Let’s take a look at the charts:

BTC stack reaching another all time high (party every month!). Fiat value bouncing up, trying to pop that 100k again. Mentally prepared to stack at these prices until the next halving (don’t really think that’s gonna happen) but who tf knows! Have seen many people capitulate on the laser eyes (pussies). Gonna keep them until 100k. Join me!

The bars represent every bitcoin purchase I’ve ever made, starting from October 2017, 59 in total. It has been a rollercoaster and I wouldn’t expect anything less from the future. During the time I made my best buys, +600% gains on the chart, the sentiment was exactly the same as it is right now: a big crash had happened, no idea if it was gonna continue to crash even more, how long I had time to stack at low prices / how long I needed to wait for the next bull. Erbie Stax classifies the present time as a good stacking season.

The orange line is my bitcoin retirement plans performance. The blue line is the performance of an imaginary strategy with similar investments, only bitcoin replaced by the S&P500. I made this chart because I used to be obsessed about the early retirement blogs and mindset. They more or less always buy the S&P because it gives you ‘guaranteed’ +7% performance forever. If I had been doing that with my 500€ per month I would have got a whopping +29% performance after 59 months (gotta be worse than inflation?). Bitcoin on the other hand has given me a nice +200% for the total amount of money put in, even at the bottom of the crash we are currently in. Choose your savings strategy wisely.

That’s all for now! Cut costs, stack sats. Earn some extra fiat, sell some useless furniture (chairs). Don’t go leverage, don’t trade shitcoins, don’t look for yield. Stay away from seed oils & soy. Peace and love.

Yours,

@RetireEarlyBTC

Ps. Many times I get asked where to buy bitcoin. I would buy from this guy at Bull Bitcoin. Or this guy at Swan Bitcoin. And self custody the corn.

Stacking ’em Volume 24 (July 2022)

Another month mining fiat at the office, another salary hitting the bank account, another bitcoin purchase added to the stack! July’s price for me was around 19400 €/BTC which means I got ~0.025 BTC added to the stack that stands at ~ 4.10 today. That’s another .1 milestone hit which almost feels like getting a full coin few years ago. Many times I get comments like ‘why do you keep stacking when you’re not gonna make any real difference to your stack anymore?’. I understand where they’re coming from but on the top of my head I’d say there’s two reasons:

Firstly, are you gonna just sit on your lazy ass and wait for something to happen you have no power over (the price of bitcoin)? Or are you gonna spend your time doing your absolute best and getting the prize after some hard work only when you finally deserve it? Many times the journey is more important than the goal. How you get it is more important than what you get. I’m gonna fight for bitcoin and fight for my freedom as hard as I can. I’m gonna keep stacking till the end. Bitcoin is a way of life.

Secondly, let’s say my stack reaches 1 million euros and I decide to quit my job and sell some bitcoin to live for the next 12 months. Selling bitcoin would suck, really bad, anyway, always. But it’s a necessary part of my plan to step out of the fiat hamster wheel and get some protection from my bitcoin stack. So the way I’ve been thinking about the most recent stacking is: This is the bitcoin I can sell with clear conscience. In a way, I’m currently stacking to another mental bitcoin compartment and my ‘forever hodl’ is already ready in another compartment. I’m about ~10x away from the predetermined goal which is a 1 million stack so every 500€ I stack right now becomes 5000€ of licence to spend fiat later.

This is a good segue to another topic I get asked a lot: “How’s the early retirement gonna look? Are you gonna sell some top? Buy stocks? Get yield? How are you gonna live off your bitcoin?”

The ‘normal’ early retirement folks plan to sell about 4% of their stocks every year and count on the rest appreciating at roughly +7% per year. So, in theory they can live forever off of their stocks and even get more spending budget every year as the total keeps going higher (and thus the 4%). My very first bitcoin noob plan was actually to sell all bitcoin when my stack would be 1 million, then buy S&P500 and go with the above plan. But, soon after falling down the rabbit hole, I understood it’s not wise to sell bitcoin for another asset. So the next iteration of my ER plan was to sell ~5% of my stack every year and count on bitcoin to appreciate more than that, forever. The current compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is somewhere above 100% and I think this might actually be a good enough plan for the foreseeable. However, when I did some calculations it hurt my soul kinda bad to realise that even if the fiat denominated amounts would be golden, the actual bitcoin stack could fall kinda dramatically in 10 – 20 years doing this kinda plan. So, constant selling does not feel like a solution.

Early retirement in my mind is not sleeping long, sitting around all day in coffee houses, travelling for fun etc. leisure. It is freedom from the necessity of a job / boss, and freedom from the stress of bills you need to find out a way of paying. I’m planning to actually have some useful skills and perform them in a way that gives my life a purpose and eventually, naturally, income. But instead of stressing about starting a company and having to get income immediately, I can rely on bitcoin having my back and master a skill or two and watch it ‘automatically’ evolve into a self sustaining business lifestyle. That is the plan. Bitcoin for me is just the ultimate resource for self sovereignty. It can take 1 year, 5 years or 10 years before I’m successfully creating enough income. Bitcoin stack shall have my back until then.

Let’s look at the charts:

Figure 1. Orange line is my bitcoin stack, left axis. Green line is the corresponding fiat value in euros, right axis. Dashed black line is the total amount of fiat spent, right axis.

A new all time high! In sats. Back below 100k in the fiat. Feels like a bottom, but I’ve been constantly wrong before =D so don’t count on my guesses. Doesn’t really matter though, the stacking continues whatever the price, with a higher pace with a lower price. I think of Bitcoin as the Atlantic when leaving Europe for the new world. It’s gonna be stormy, but we knew it already (or should have) when hopping aboard. Some of us will not make it to the destination. But for the ones who do, it will be worth it.

The bars represent every bitcoin purchase I’ve ever made, once per month, starting from October 2017, 58 in total. The best buys from early 2019 still record over 500% gains while the last 18 months have given me losses for every stacking ranging from -21% to -63%. So, I would have gotten a better performance for my money during the last 18 months by piling them in to a bank account. But this is the case always with bitcoin – you will be tested by being put under water. You will not know it before hand so you can’t prepare and the only way to avoid it is to not buy bitcoin in the first place. No free rides, deal with it.

The orange line is the performance of my bitcoin savings strategy for the money put in. The blue line is the performance of an imaginary S&P500 strategy with similar purchases during same dates. Here, I’m just trying to compare how it could have been had I not found and chosen bitcoin as my savings vehicle. Somebody somewhere is trying to save money with 500€ per month put into S&P and he would have gotten only +18% for the money put in after almost 5 years. Thats probably less than the compounded real inflation during the past 5 years. My bitcoin strategy on the other hand, even after a huge crash and a possible cycle bottom, has gotten me around +150% for the money put in. There simply is no competition for bitcoin as a savings vehicle. Feels like a store of value for me.

Thanks for reading, enjoy the summer and don’t forget to stack your share of the discount sats!

@RetireEarlyBTC

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