Post/stackingem

Stacking ’em Volume 4 (September 2020)

Posted on by Bitster Money Mustache / 18 Comments

Another month, another salary, another Bitcoin purchase. This time with a price of 8670 €/BTC which means I got ~0.057 with my 500€ recurring buy and the total stack stands at roughly 3.68 BTC. Slowly but surely I’m grinding another .1 after .1 and it feels quite good tbh. If you have a short time horizon, these smallish purchases can sometimes feel useless in the bigger picture. Therein lies also the risk of not doing it at all since the single purchase is close to ‘meaningless’. This, I believe, is also the reason why many people still don’t own any Bitcoin. They might have been years on the sidelines thinking they missed the boat already. They are waiting for something that will never come: a big amount of money available combined with a large dip in Bitcoin price. They might get one but not the other. And even if they got both, they would be too scared to buy because it’s ‘going down’. And then it’s ‘too late’ again when it’s back up. I’m gonna call this the Bitcoin tradeoff triangle:

If you have a dip in price and balls to buy – you’re not gonna have a very large amount of fiat to put in. If you have a large amount of fiat and you’re convinced to buy – you’re not gonna get your dip in the price. If you have a large amount of fiat ready to go AND a dip in price – too bad you’re gonna chicken and wait for an even larger dip and miss that opportunity.

This is why you buy every month. Easy for the brain, easy for the heart, no need to lose your sleep over any sort of price action / Bitcoin drama. Believe me, I’ve seen it all during the last 3 years. There’s been +40% moves in 24h. There’s been -85% drop in 2 months with seemingly no bottom for the price. There’s been China bans, hacks and forks and attacks. Right now, some poor trader is losing his shit over this pathetic drop from $12k to $10k while I’m genuinely happy of the dip that happened to coincide with my payday and recurring buy. Let’s have a look of my journey so far:

You can see two big hikes in my BTC total amount. First, in the very beginning when I sold all of my stocks (less than 1k€) and bought Bitcoin with the amount. And second, in Jan 2019 when I got a bonus from work (put it all in Bitcoin) and luckily the price was at the bear market bottom. That month alone gave me more than a half of Bitcoin and it clearly shows in the figure above. The rest has been quite stable progress according to the chart. Surprisingly stable to be honest. It certainly feels like the price has been up and down like hell during the last 3 years. Still, the stack has grown in more or less constant pace. Seeing this chart gives me a great motivation boost actually as I can clearly see that stacking still pays off. Soon I’ll shoot past 4 BTC and it would be nice to get over 5 BTC before the eventual price increase will flatten the curve.

Hope this gives you motivation to start stacking, keep on stacking and make that extra sacrifice to increase your stacking capabilities.

Cut costs, stack sats.

-BMM

Post

Moonmath

Posted on by Bitster Money Mustache / 19 Comments

I started wondering how it would have felt if I had found Bitcoin earlier than I did. Everybody dreams about this. In hindsight it feels it must have been easier: easier to stack, easier to succeed, easier to get the everlasting riches (and BTB). Turns out it most likely would have felt exactly the same. Just as hard to stack, and just as long road to success. Let me explain:

I started buying Bitcoin in October 2017. The ATH was about two months later, December 2017. What if I had started to buy Bitcoin ~2 months before (Sept 2013) the previous ATH? Where would I have been after a similar journey of stacking, nearly 3 years later (June 2016) and what would have happened the following year, 2017?

Turns out with constant monthly buys of 500€ between September 2013 and July 2016 (35 months, the exact same time period as my current stacking has been), the total would stand at ~62 Bitcoin which at the time was worth around 36k€ (Figure below). Even the most recent pump is visible in this chart of what could have been =D pretty amazing stuff.

If you go and check my progress from the previous monthly update, the total is shockingly similar – around 36k€. The shape of this imaginary journey from Figure above, also seems very familiar: BTC accumulation phase when the net worth in fiat more or less stays the same or slightly decreases. And of course, less BTC stack growth when the fiat net worth shoots up due to price increase.

This leads me to my moonmath: If I’m currently in an identical situation fiat net worth wise, I might as well assume I will continue on the same trajectory. Let’s extend the chart above to include the totality of 2017 bull market:

I have circled the fiat net worth increase that was presented in the first Figure. And which I’m also currently experiencing (assumably). Take a look how the chart develops after the red circle: this is my blueprint for the next year (2021), and although I’ve not realistically dreamed of hitting the 1 million net worth next year already. God damn, it might just happen sooner than I realize.

We could further extend the chart to include the bear market lows of 2018 but I wanna end on a high note rather than giving you nightmares =D

Success with Bitcoin is relative and proportional to the time you dedicate to it. There are a lot of early adopters who sold all of their Bitcoins early. There will be a lot of late adopters who hold for decades. Don’t be sorry for missing out on the ‘easy years’ of early Bitcoin history. It was just as hard in the early days and if you’re not gonna buy and hold right now, most likely you wouldn’t have bought and held back then.

Start stacking. Have conviction. Survive the bear. Ride the bull –> Success.

– Bitster Money Mustache

Post/stackingem

Stacking ’em Volume 3 (August 2020)

Posted on by Bitster Money Mustache / 14 Comments

A new month, a new salary, a new purchase of Bitcoin. This time with a price of 9590 €/BTC which means my 500€ got me ~0.05 and the stack grew to 3.62 BTC. With todays price of 10080€/BTC my total stands at 36500€. That’s only 3.65% of the target but +20% when compared to last month. Which of course, is due to the recent price action.

Finally, some price action. And if you know who Hodlonaut is and what he does – this time he is correct. Bitcoin will never be below $10k again.

Though now we’ve been here in this $11-12k dollar range for what seems like forever (in reality, only a few weeks, lol). You could say Bitcoin is life extension as your normal life will feel much longer than it used to.

About these +20% moves: This is what Bitcoin does. When it pumps, it pumps fast. Then it’s boring, then it dumps and when it pumps again, it pumps fast. You don’t wanna be ‘trading some range’ or waiting on the sidelines for the perfect buy. That would be a way to lose your mind and money, quite surely.

I remember an analysis that concluded that if you miss the 10 best days of each year in Bitcoin price action, you’d be down on your investment since 2013. Seems impossible since Bitcoin was below $100 in 2013. But that just goes to show how fast Bitcoin pumps are and if you are trying to be smart and trade yourself some extra BTC, what’s gonna happen is you’ll end up with significantly less BTC than could have. This is why you don’t wanna trade. This is why you hold. This is why you need to have exposure for every day of the year.

365 days good, 355 days bad.

I actually had one of my friends (the only one I have somewhat successfully Orangepilled into owning some Bitcoin) whining about selling the most recent break above $10k and it didn’t drop back down into the 9000s as he expected. Shocking! He asked if he should just bite the bullet and buy back in before the price gets ‘out of reach’. I of course told him to buy back in immediately and take the lesson – ‘never trade’. This is the flaw in trading and with traders and their mindset. Just like my friend had ‘analysed’ Bitcoin to always drop back down when breaking 10k, traders will try and find patterns they can use to predict the future price action. And just like my friend could have been successful in a few occasions, the traders might also make small profits with their strategy. Only to be in a complete shock WHEN the price does something ‘unexpected’. And this is what Bitcoin and it’s price will do time and time again.

The unexpected.

Cut Costs. Stack sats. Don’t trade. Cut out seedoils from your diet.

– Bitster Money Mustache