A few months ago I wrote an article called “Moonmath“. It was basically a thought experiment of how it would’ve been like had I found Bitcoin ~4 years (one cycle) earlier than I did. Turns out it would have been more or less identical in terms of fiat invested, time spent, gains made.
In short, I started to invest in Bitcoin in October 2017, a few months before the previous ATH. I have bought Bitcoin every month ever since, usually with a fixed amount of 500€ (two exceptions). During the previous 3+ years I’ve managed to gather almost 3.8 BTC. I wanted to know how much Bitcoin (and fiat) I would have had if I had started to invest before the 2013 ATH and had invested the same amount of fiat every month and continued to do it for the same amount of time. The results are presented in the figure below.
The orange line (actual) is my Bitcoin holdings euro value. The green line (moonmath) is the imaginary euro value of my BTC stack if I had found Bitcoin 4 years earlier than I did (you can basically think the X-axis in -4 years in this case). I think it’s pretty remarkable that I’m actually better off right now (in fiat terms) than what I would’ve been in late 2016 after 3+ years of religious stacking during 2013 – 2016. Sure, I would’ve had nearly 80 Bitcoin in that case and fast forward to today I’d already be a millionaire. But that is kinda my point.
There’s no shortcuts to Bitcoin success.
All of the ‘lucky’ early Bitcoiners also needed to start the stacking, also needed to continue stacking (for many years) and only with a sufficient amount of time passing were they vindicated.
I can be envious to someone who holds 80 Bitcoin today. But that someone has also most likely dedicated 4 years more of his life to Bitcoin compared to me. Someone in 2024 will be envious of my ~4 Bitcoin and so on. All you can really do is start stacking them sats *right now*. Everybody has been in the same place, everybody wished they found Bitcoin earlier. But it wasn’t any easier for those early folks. You need them years under your belt. You need to stack sats and stack them Bitcoin years.
To conclude, I’m gonna extrapolate the aforementioned moonmath, basically checking out how’s this accumulated ~80 BTC gonna perform during the bullmarket of 2017. Gotta say, I like the sight of this. This shall be my blueprint for 2021.
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