Post/stackingem

Stacking ’em Volume 36 (January 2024)

Posted on by Bitster Money Mustache

Another month served at the fiat mine, another salary hitting the bank account, another bitcoin purchase made at market price! As per usual I squander 500€ of my fresh salary and try to survive the month with the rest. The price this time was around 39100 € / BTC which means I got another ~.013 BTC added to the stack that stands at roughly 4.47 BTC today.

So, the ETFs are here. And nothing really happened, price wise. Well, maybe something happened, beforehand. But that was also pretty basic bitcoin pumping that happens all the time, with or without some bullish news. Don’t really know what to make of it. Are the ETFs not popular enough? Are the ETFs used to somehow dilute available supply? Is there a delay in the effect and we will see the ‘ETF bull’ eventually but not immediately? Don’t know. My guessing is, the availability of such products doesn’t immediately turn into a big demand. But maybe when the real bull market starts, for example half a year after the halving, maybe the ETFs will amplify the bull craziness making it possible for more than ‘the usual amount’ of people getting involved. We’ll see. In the meantime, gonna keep on stacking them sats! Let’s take a look at the charts:

The orange line (left axis) is my btc stack, ever increasing, getting closer to the next milestone of 4.5 coins. The green line (right axis) is the corresponding value in eurozone fiat terms, recently shooting up past 150k and aiming for a new all time high in the future not far from here. The black dashed line (right axis) is the total amount of money put it, mostly 500€ per month (3 exceptions, mentioned in the blog). The total amount after 6+ years is ~40k at the moment. Hell of a lot! But it really has happened one month at a time, 500€ at a time.

Bitcoin stacks are not built in a day.

The bars represent every bitcoin purchase I’ve ever made, starting from October 2017, 76 in total. Only 9 of these are underwater, the worst one being ~ -25%. The best buys from 2018 – 2019 bear market give me a return of +1200%. That’s your asymmetrical bet right there. You gotta be willing to go underwater for a while to get some +1000% returns in the long run. Some people (not gonna name anyone but Peter Schiff you pussy) are not willing to endure the minus twenty fives.

The orange line is the performance of my bitcoin savings strategy. The blue line is the performance of putting similar amounts on similar days into S&P (the standard boomer savings strategy). The bitcoin strategy has given me a profit of ~330% for the money put in, whereas the S&P strategy would have given me a measly profit of 42% for the money put in, after 6+ years (that can’t be more than inflation really). I made this chart because I used to be obsessed about the early retirement / financial independence thing, blogs like Mr Money Moustache, for example. Basically, they save as much as they can and buy the S&P with it every month. So, I felt like finding the cheat codes and wanted to track just how much better it is to always buy bitcoin instead. Feel free to share this chart to anyone in the FIRE sphere =D.

Here I’m comparing the performance of MSTR stock to GBTC that was the popular earlier way for bitcoin exposure. Not surprisingly, they go hand in hand but in general MSTR has been the better bet. The chart start when Microstrategy first announced their bitcoin treasury strategy. Interesting to see how the ETFs will affect this dynamic, if at all.

That’s a wrap! First post of the year. Gonna be an interesting one for sure. ETFs are already here, halving is coming soon, bull market might also start in full force within the year. Keep calm and stack sats!

@BRetirementPlan

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Post/stackingem

Stackin’ em Volume 35 (December 2023)

Posted on by Bitster Money Mustache

It’s been a while since updating the blog, life hitting hard on other areas being the reason, nevertheless the stacking never stops! Fiat mine keeps running, salary keeps hitting the bank account, sats keep getting stacked. The price for December was around 34800€ for me which means I got another ~.014 btc added to the stack that stands at roughly 4.45 btc at the moment.

A lot has happened since I last posted, bitcoin seems to be in an ‘up only’ mood. I remember writing about a similar phase in 2020 when bitcoin started to creep towards the previous all time highs (from 10k –> 20k) without any real downturns. That was half a year after spring 2020 halving so currently we are ~1 year early (compared to the previous cycle) approaching the previous ath. The cycle theory was already a bit disappointing (although timely correct) last time around, but now it seems we can throw away any predictions made with the previous cycles behaviour. Basically, Bitcoin is gonna keep doing the thing it always has been doing – the unpredictable. Let’s take a look at the charts:

The orange line (left axis) is my btc stack, always increasing, getting closer to the next milestone that is 4.5 btc. The green line (right axis) is the corresponding fiat worth, climbing up again after finding the bear market bottom below 100k, now above 150k and not too far from ath numbers. It has to be said that the actual performance has been more of a rollercoaster but this chart is made with the purchase dates, once per month data points, so you cannot see all the volatility. The black dashed line (right axis) is the total amount of money spent, ~40k at the moment, during 6 years with once per month purchases.

The bars represent every bitcoin purchase I’ve ever made, starting from October 2017, 75 in total. That’s 75 months religiously buying bitcoin, during the bulls, during the bears, not spending the money on something else, keeping the course, eyes on the price. It’s a hard work creating your bitcoin stack, no way around it. About the chart: the best buys from 2018-2019 give me gains of ~1000% while the worst buys form the previous bull cycle give a loss of -35% (the small blip down from 0-axis in late 2021). There’s your asymmetrical bet that bitcoin provides. And these -35% paper losses are the ones that the boomers are afraid of thus keeping away from bitcoin.

The orange line is the performance of the bitcoin savings strategy. The blue line is the performance of a standard (and poor) savings strategy of similar buys into S&P instead. The S&P strategy obviously has less volatility which is probably why it’s more popular among people with trouble holding their piss, but if you can stomach the volatility, there’s little reason why shouldn’t opt for the clearly superior savings strategy. The bitcoin strategy has given me a +290% profit for the money put in, while S&P strategy would have given a measly +38%, a near 10x difference and we are at the precipice of another bull market which will most likely stretch this difference to unimaginable levels.

That’s all for this month, and year! I hope you have seized the day with your stacking capabilities and I hope next year provides us some nice upticks for a while. The bear market has been long but we survived it and are ready for the bull and the struggles it provides us (it’s not easy in the bull market either). Have a nice Christmas and New Years, see you next year!

–@BRetirementPlan

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Post/stackingem

Stacking ’em Volume 34 (August 2023)

Posted on by Bitster Money Mustache

Summers up! At least the vacation part, and so yours truly gets back to routine life which means also the updating of this blog. Though there was a break from writing, there was (of course) no break from stacking! The most recent purchase from August came with a price of ~29600 € / BTC and the total stack stands at roughly 4.39 BTC today.

Seems like there’s been a lot of things happening recently (ETFs and the SEC clampdowns) coinciding with nothing happening to the 30k stable coin price. During bear markets the price will dump with even the most bullish news, and during the bull market the price will keep pumping no matter how bearing news you get. Now we are in a situation where no amount of bearish nor bullish news will have any effect on the price. So I would say we are in the perfect middle point, definitely out of the bear market but not yet entered the bull market. Heavy accumulation zone as Tuur Demeester might say. Perfect for us constastackers. Let’s take a look at the charts:

The orange line is my ever increasing bitcoin stack (left axis), slowly but surely approaching the next milestone of 4.5 coins. The green line is the corresponding fiat net worth (right axis), climbing out of the most recent bear market bottom and comfortably above 100k now. The black dashed line is the total amount of fiat put it (right axis), ~38k euros already. Average price for coin has been ~8700€ during the 6 year period.

The bars represent every bitcoin purchase I’ve ever made, once per month starting from October 2017, 71 in total. The best purchases from the 2018-2019 bear market are currently up 900% while the worst buys from the recent bulltop are down -45%. Bitcoin is often described as an asymmetric bet where the upside potential dwarfs the downside risk, this chart visualises that relationship pretty well. However, it’s been a long 2.5 years with no gains to show and I feel for you all who have started to stack exactly 2.5 years ago. It sucks! But it’s a Bitcoin rite of passage that everyone just needs to go through.

Here I’m comparing my bitcoin savings strategy to the standard (and poor) savings strategy of putting it all into S&P500 instead. In other words, If I had been a total boomer with similar savings schedule, I would have made a whopping 39% for my money after sticking to a savings plan for nearly 6 years. But as an autistic bitcoin bro, my savings vehicle has delivered +240% instead. Cheat codes have been found, they are just not evenly distributed.

That’s all for now! Let’s enjoy the sideways market as long as it will accompany us. Though we can’t wait to shoot higher, we all know we are gonna miss these prices. Seize the day, stack the sat!

–@BRetirementPlan

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